2018 European car sales growth will slow down, while the downturn in diesel momentum will intensify. Investors will see radical moves like the possible launch of Jeep, Alfa Romeo or Maserati, a subsidiary of Fiat Chrysler FCA, and the real hope will be that Volkswagen and Daimler (Daimler) with Audi and Porsche, or Mercedes-Benz trucks.
The new BMW 3 Series and Audi A6 sedans, the Jaguar E-Pace and the Volvo XC40 compact SUV, and the Ford Focus family will spark consumer interest while the EV may be more volatile.
Most analysts expect sales growth to slow next year, up from a 4% forecast at investment bank NordBlue in Western Europe to less than 1% at LMC Automotive.
Citigroup Research said there will be no bad thing in Europe by 2018, as it will be the 9th year after the financial crisis. Worries about a recession in Europe seem unfounded.
“We still see the potential for volume growth in Europe by 2018 but the main driver of output will be emerging markets where we have no confidence in the (economic) cycle to roll – unemployment is low, global GDP is synchronized and real incomes rise – but at the same time we Acknowledge growth is slowing, “said Michael Tederle, a Citi research analyst.
Tyndall said auto stocks led gains in 2017 as investors weaker concerns about the huge cost of new technologies and was excited about the possibility that FCA, Daimler and Volkswagen could become addicted to releasing investor value.
“Interestingly, FCA, Daimler and Volkswagen have been among the best performing Europe (manufacturers) in the past three months, and they are some of the most likely candidates for unlocking. This is a time for us. FCA It may take action in 2018, but we think this is expected, and the other two names we consider to be a longer term prospect, “said Tyndall.
“In key Western European sub-regions, which account for 79% of European car sales, growth will slow to 3.7% in 2018 and to 4.3% in 2017,” BMI Research said in a note.
Western Europe includes all major markets such as Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy.
BMI said: “However, we believe that the major economies in Western Europe, the rise of healthy inflation and employment will continue to provide important support for the growth of car sales.”
It said sales in the UK will fall.
LMC expects Western Europe to grow by 0.8% in 2018 to reach 14.44 million. It is estimated that Britain will become a drag on the market in the second half of the year.
But the chaos that fears Britain’s exit from the EU (Brexit) will eventually fall into the auto industry seems to have eased.
Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer from Duisburg-Essen University Automotive Research Center (CAR) in Germany said that new products will help demand in 2018, though the decline in diesel sales will be a problem.
CAR lists new models that may emerge in 2018, such as the January Jaguar E-Pace, the March Volvo XC 40, May Peugeot 508, May Mercedes A-Class, July Volkswagen Touareg, A6 (July), Ford Focus (September) and BMW 3 Series (October).